Published January 17, 2026

Boulder + Denver January Market Snapshot + Q1 2026 Outlook

Written by Stu Galvis

January Market Snapshot + Q1 2026 Outlook

Things are changing… FAST!

It’s a New Year, friends. And while December’s data looks familiar, what I’m seeing in real time already feels very different.

A quick note so we’re always speaking the same language: this January Market Snapshot uses December closed data (because that’s what gets finalized and released mid-month), plus what I’m seeing in real time as activity wakes up.

If you prefer to watch instead of read, watch the Video Here (and don’t judge my Anchorman skills—or lack thereof):

January Market Snapshot — Denver + Boulder (Dec. 2025 Data)

Here are the headline numbers I’m using for this snapshot. (Feel free to skim past this section to read what each metric actually means to the market and what we can infer from each.) Don’t get hypnotized by any single metric—the story is always in the relationships between supply, demand, negotiation, and time.

Active Inventory rose in both counties. Boulder County is at 879 (+6.7%) and Denver County is at 1,871 (+6.1%). More inventory is more choice, and more choice is what brings negotiation back.

Months’ Supply is sitting at 2.5 in both Boulder (+4.2%) and Denver (+13.6%). That number matters because it’s a quick proxy for how much “breathing room” buyers have—and how much competition sellers are actually facing.

Homes Sold was down. Boulder County came in at 318 (-3.9%) and Denver County at 694 (-4.0%). That’s demand softening, and it’s also seasonality doing what seasonality does at the end of the year.

Median Sales Price is down year-over-year in both counties. Boulder is at $675,000 (-6.8%) and Denver is at $560,000 (-3.4%). That doesn’t mean “everything is cheaper.” It means the market is still sorting out what’s worth paying up for—and what isn’t.

Sale Price as a % of Original List Price is also down. Boulder is at 94.8% (-0.7%) and Denver is at 95.0% (-1.2%). That’s negotiation showing up in the numbers: concessions, reductions, and a wider spread between what sellers want and what buyers will actually pay.

Days on market are up, especially in Denver. Boulder is at 66 (+1.5%) and Denver is at 47 (+11.9%). Time creates motivation—but the question is whether that stays true as we move toward spring.

What this tells us (and what’s happening in real time)

Inventory is up, which means supply is up. Buyers had more choices, sellers faced more competition, and negotiation was back.

The best homes still got rewarded in December—great condition, great layout, great location, priced correctly—especially in high-demand micro-markets. The “average” home had to earn the win again.

And here’s the key: early January activity suggests the market may already be shifting toward more urgency on the right homes.

Fewer homes sold, which means demand was softer (and more selective). End-of-year seasonality is real, and the buyers who were in the market were more selective.

Affordability + uncertainty made people slower to commit. Translation: the market was still moving, but it was moving with more friction—and that makes strategy matter more.

Here’s what’s interesting: I’ve already had two very recent and very real reminders that buyers are starting to get off the fence.

In December, I wrote on a “shiny penny” in Edgewater that had been sitting for weeks… and we still ended up with a competing offer. We won, but the lesson was clear: the right homes can wake buyers up fast.
Yesterday, I wrote in Boulder on a home that effectively sat for the entire second half of 2025 and made three major price reductions. They pulled it off the market for a week and relisted it last week, and after we submitted the offer the listing agent told me they received three offers. My buyers improved their already-strong offer and still lost—on a home that has been on the market for almost six months.

If you’re reading this thinking, “Wait… I thought buyers had all the leverage right now?”—you’re not wrong. You’re just missing the nuance.

Leverage exists… until it doesn’t. And it disappears first on the best prepared homes—the ones that everyone agrees are “the one.”

Watch for this: in Q1, the market won’t move as “one market.” The best-prepped, best-priced homes will create urgency (sometimes multiple offers), while the average homes will still sit and negotiate. That split is the whole game right now.

Boulder vs. Denver is splitting, not in direction, but in how it feels. Both counties showed softer pricing year-over-year, but they’re not behaving the same.

Boulder has felt more “wait and see,” while Denver showed a more noticeable shift in pace. Translation (and here comes the real talk): you can’t “Colorado market” this anymore—you have to micro-market it.

Neighborhood, price band, and home quality matter a lot. And yes, this can change quickly as weekly activity builds from here.

Sale price-to-list price ratios are down, which means negotiation is doing what negotiation does. When buyers have options and time, they negotiate—and that shows up as lower offers, more concessions, more price reductions (usually after missing early momentum), and more spread between “list price” and what the market will actually pay after it’s been on the market for a while.

The Punchline: pricing, positioning, and prep are not optional right now. The two homes I referenced above were absolutely HGTV-ready “shiny pennies,” and that’s why neither moved much (if at all) on price—and both got strong terms and quick closings even after sitting.

The more average homes are still likely to sit and suffer. Time will tell how quickly that changes.

Days on market were up (especially Denver), which means, on average, buyers have been more reluctant and sitting back. Time creates motivation—more options + more buyer hesitation usually cause listings to sit for longer.

But will it stay that way?

When a home can sit for months, take multiple price reductions, relist, and then suddenly attract multiple offers… It raises a real question: are we heading into a stronger spring market than expected?

**And by the way, our “Spring Market” actually starts in January - February.

Rate headlines hoopla & the market in real time: what you really need to know

Rates hovered around ~6.25% in December, which has still been the recent-historic tipping point for buyer activity. The most realistic near-term expectation is “steady-ish,” with a potential mild-to-moderate decline—not a sudden “rescue drop” thanks to policy changes.

There’s been a lot of hype about political claims around “buying the rate down” via Fannie Mae / mortgage-backed securities. Here’s the calm version: mortgage rates don’t move because someone says they want them to.

They move based on inflation, bond markets, and expectations around Fed policy. Could rates improve over time if Fannie starts buying MBS? Absolutely.

But building your whole plan around a dramatic, immediate drop—or following a “wait-and-see” strategy—is usually a wait-and-miss strategy. The practical play is to build a plan that works at today’s rate, and treat any future refinance opportunity as upside.

Pro tip: If your plan only works if rates drop “soon,” you don’t have a plan—you have a hope. Build the plan for today, then treat a refinance as upside, not a requirement.

But even headlines alone can be enough to change buyer behavior. If enough people believe they’ll be able to refinance into a better rate later, that can pull demand forward even while the market is still showing some softness.

That may be part of why I’ve seen two “this should’ve been negotiable” homes turn into bidding wars in the past few weeks. Only time will tell.

But if you’re thinking about making a move this year, the safer bet is usually to strike while there’s still leverage instead of waiting until the competition is obvious. Because by the time we’ve “seen it,” the best opportunities (options + negotiating room) are usually gone.

What it really means for you (buyers + sellers)

*The market still rewards people who understand the order of operations*

Sellers win early (even if it’s the second time around) with prep + pricing + a real launch plan. If they miss the opening bell, they generally lose. Prep means condition + presentation. Pricing means reality-based, not hope-based. A real launch plan means story + distribution + fast feedback loops and adjustments.

There is no “test the market.” Not anymore. The goal has to be: create early momentum so you don’t end up negotiating from weakness after lost time.

Buyers win when clarity and preparation let them move quickly and write clean offers with strong financing + smart terms. The price is only one lever.

And the buyers who are going to do best in Q1 aren’t the ones who “watch the market.” They’re the ones who are already out there learning the market so that they’re ready when the right home shows up.

If I were buying in Q1 2026…

I would assume the market stays uneven.

Some homes will sit and be negotiable, and some homes will create urgency and competition. I would be out there right now, having already set a baseline, and be creatively expanding variables to find a great deal.

If something new pops up that is truly “the one,” I’ll be ready to jump first, before anyone else.

The worst place to be is unprepared when the right one shows up. I’d be crystal clear on my target, fully dialed on every aspect and option related to my financing, and I would already know my offer strategy before I fall in love with a house.

That’s how you win.

If I were selling in Q1 2026…

I would assume buyers are picky, and I would treat my listing like a product launch.

Mine would be the most beautiful, well-maintained, perfectly staged home in my price range, and it would show more value to potential buyers than any other. That way, I’d create momentum early and launch with a real plan to create competition in the first weekend.

Time is not neutral for sellers. Time is extremely costly. It exacerbates motivation, and motivation creates negotiation.

The Punchline

December’s data says negotiation is back and strategy matters more.

Boots on the ground: early January activity says something else is also true—urgency may be returning for the right homes, sooner and stronger than people expect. Will it last? Is this a sustainable trend? There’s only one way to find out.

If you’re buying or selling this year, the move isn’t to guess the market or wait and see. The move is to build a plan that works in today’s reality, and lets you take advantage of all the leverage you have while it still exists.

Smart strategy. No hype.

Next step: pressure-test your plan (free)

If you want me to pressure-test your plan—buyer or seller—book a free 20-minute strategy session here: https://www.stugalvis.com/schedule

Call/Text: (720) 441-4815

You’ll leave with: